Thursday, March 11, 2004
A group claiming to be connected with Al Qaeda, the Brigade of Abu Hafs Al-Masri, claimed responsibility for today's Islamist massacre in Madrid.
I believe that this is the beginning of an Al Qaeda campaign in Europe. AQ's High Command is hidden away in the Northwestern Frontier States of Pakistan, and is more than likely on the run. How and ever, STRATFOR indicates that the "brigade" in question is a veteran of other AQ contract operations in North Africa. So, they have relations with the main group, but are more than likely a subcontractor for the main outfit.
A terrorist bombing offensive would serve AQ's ends nicely, given the anti-American sentiments of much of Europe. That is what I believe they are about to do.
The jump across the Pillars of Hercules from Algeria should come as no surprise. There is also the possibility that the jihadi contracted out some of the work to the Basque Seperatist organization, ETA. However, ETA is riven with discord and is probably thoroughly penetrated by Spanish internal security. I doubt that AQ or a subcontractor group like the Al-Masri people would work with ETA, given the possiblity of a compromise in operational security.
Whatever the outcome, Spain is in the war. Up to its neck. A lot will depend on how much anger and outrage the Spanish people have within them. To a Spaniard, this was September 11th.
One predictable thing you will see: there will be commentators in the Eurotrash press indicating that Spain had got its comeuppance for cooperating with President Bush. The siren song of appeasement will be heard.
I wonder: can the Europeans summon up the will to fight for their civilization?