Friday, September 17, 2004
No, not out of the Closet. Out with a poll showing Bush up by thirteen points.
Two other polls, the Pew poll and the Harris poll, showed Bush and Kerry neck and neck. I am given to understand, however, that both of those polls were completed early in the week, while the Gallup organization had the advantage of not finishing their count until Wednesday. Gallup's poll may be reflecting a backlash against Kerry in regard to the CBS News contretemps (people don't cotton to unfair attacks, or tactics, for that matter).
I gleaned a couple of other factoids from Gallup: Bush is doing better among the elderly, and now leads among all women. His lead among men has expanded to fifteen points. One other thing: they are using a turnout model of 55%, and could be acting on the assumption of a higher turnout of evangelicals and Republicans, using the 2002 campaign as a template.