Wednesday, November 03, 2004
George W. Bush has been reelected to the Presidency.
While it is all over but the lawyering, Bush has 286 Electoral Votes to Senator John F. Kerry's 253. In an act of supreme gracelessness, Kerry chose not to concede the election. He did so because of a claim that Ohio's provisional ballots have yet to be counted. However, Bush closed out Ohio last night with a lead of 144,000 votes. Most Ohio officials, from Secretary of State Ken Blackwill on down, state that it is mathematically impossible for Kerry to win the 90% of outstanding ballots that would be needed to win. As I write this, Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa are actually still out, as the Mainstream Press loves a story and refuses to grant Bush these states, though each is securely in the Bush corner.
Expect the partisan media to begin to call on Kerry to stand down. The MSM has every interest in a Hillary candidacy in 2008, and I suspect that the media analysts will begin to show Kerry that he can't win Ohio, while NM, NV, and IA are out of reach.
Bush received a popular mandate, as his father did in 1988. The President received 58 million votes, while Kerry received 54 million. Bush won the popular vote by a 51 to 48 margin, which is enough for me to state that the President has received a conditional mandate from the people.
The Senate showed some gains for the Republicans, and a working majority appears in sight. The House shows a solid majority for the Pubbies, and a working Majority Government appears to be possible.
However, this is a conditional mandate for the President. The people want him to succeed in the War on Terror and Iraq, but I suspect that they want him to reach out to the Democrats to help him win. Bush should take the chance now to form a new War Cabinet and bring in a strong, Scoop Jackson Democrat at Defense or State. Rumsfeld should go, as I believe that he has not increased overall troop end strength to the point where the General Staff would be able to reduce the dependence on the Guard and Reserve. Condoleezza Rice will probably ascend to State or Defense, depending on what happens with Powell and Rumsfeld.
Those are my impressions as of this morning.