Monday, November 01, 2004
...to George W. Bush.
I am detecting movement to the President in the last hours. Every blog and post on FR, as well as the happier postings over at
the Kerry Spot are telling me that the inside numbers at BC04 are moving the President's way, and have been much of the weekend. When people in Red are banging out the word "Pennsylvania!" all over their keyboards, I start to feel real good.
Michigan is looking more and more like a Bush feint designed to keep Kerry in Detroit and away from Pittsburgh. Michigan will go for Kerry, but not by the kind of spread he needs to win the popular vote nationwide. As to Ohio, my take is that our ground game wins that state for us, while Bush runs well ahead of his 2000 totals in Florida and wins my state by 2 %.
The big surprise tomorrow? Bush's increase take in the black community: look for him to poll between 11 and 14 percent. Kerry is dead if Bush polls in the teens in Black America.
I am a lot more optimistic as I turn in this evening than I was twelve hours ago. I am simply detecting a confidence based on real numbers that is radiating from BC04, while I am not detecting same from KE04. Body language is telling: McAuliffe and Gillespie were on earlier this evening. EG gave out specific states that BC04 is doing better in, while TMC was a lot more general and had to fall back on the "new voters" scam. Ingraham and Estrich were on FOX this evening; again, Laura was a lot more confident, according to the Freepers, while Estrich was considerably less cocky than she was at this time last week.
Finally, for some real studlyman analysis of where we stand, I link to Jay Cost's The Horserace Blog. Read the whole thing, and when you're done reading that article, go to the main page and watch him debunk the rush to the challenger rule among late deciders.
Last bit of advice: show me a candidate who swears that his guy will be helped past the finish line by new voters and I will show you a loser.
Oh yeah, reviews of Innocence: Ghost in the Shell and Team America: World Police coming from Fugstat, my silent partner in this enterprise.