Tuesday, July 06, 2004
One of the True Gods of Blogdom, Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit.com gave me props for an email I wrote to him earlier today. You can find the text of my letter to him here, at the bottom of Glenn's roundup of reaction to the John-John ticket.
Thanks for the props, Glenn! I suppose it's time for me to break down and actually buy the Instapundit Coffee Cup and Secret Decoder Ring?
Glenn shares my concern about the structural weakness Cheney brings with him. Money graph:
I find this scenario pretty plausible -- but then, I've been calling for Cheney to be replaced on the ticket, preferably by Condi, for quite a while. And given Edwards' record, it'll be hard to fault Rice for lack of experience, since her national-security credentials are a lot better than his.
I think that Cheney not only fails to bring votes to the ticket, but is an actual liability to Bush, and that if Bush keeps him it will probably cost him the election. I also think that there are a number of good picks out there -- not just Condi, but Rudy Giuliani (though I agree that the already-sullen gun-rights segment of the base wouldn't be overjoyed with him), John McCain, or Colin Powell, for example. We'll see.
And so, we will. I'm placing my money on the head-fake. Bush is just too good a politician to let an opportunity like this pass. Kerry has given the President a gift, and doesn't know it yet.
And so, John Kerry picked the man he wanted second.
John Edwards, trial lawyer extraordinaire, was picked by the Massachussetts senator to be his running mate. However, it was known that his first choice was John McCain, the senior Republican senator from Arizona. McCain has just made a passel of Bush commercials, however, and it is known that Bush and McCain have patched things up somewhat.
Why did Kerry pick Edwards? Well, I suspect that Edwards polled well among Democrats and Independents. I also suspect that Kerry would like to snatch at least one state of the Old Confederacy, and North Carolina's demographics have to look promising to the Kerry campaign.
Kerry has made one brutal mistake, however. He has needlessly made an enemy of the Clintons by not going on his knees to Conossa and requesting Hillary Clinton to be his running mate. It would have been his best move, in my opinion, as it would have sewn up women (in the absence of Condi Rice on the Republican side) for Lurch.
So Kerry makes an exciting, but not inspired choice. For Republicans, we can expect Bush to be behind for awhile. Or, Bush can do something really inspired and put Rice on the ticket. My only problem with Cheney is that he doesn't have the demographic reach that a Condi Rice would have.
My hunch, and hope, is the Bush has Rice up his sleeve.